The last 3.5 months have been challenging from a trading perspective. After the lows of Feb , March and April Y2020 the stock market experienced a steep ascent of around 14months with only a few bumps in the road. New investors entering into the markets after the initial COVID shockwaves were rewarded with very fast returns.
However , since July 2021 bullish sentiment has somewhat cooled and more caution called for. As investors we must now navigate the trickier element of an uncertain market. Global inflation, energy price hikes, tapering, economic fallout from COVID and elevated risks in China have all combined in recent weeks and delivered significant volatility.
Last week we witnessed a 3% drop on the $NSDQ100 for the first time on a single trading day in over 1 year. A rebound followed shortly afterwards but ran out of steam on Friday.
Sentiment remains mixed at this time. On the one hand tech stocks are some way off recent highs and interest rates remain on the floor, whilst on the other hand tapering is around the corner, with inflationary risks rising. It is extremely hard to second guess the market but my current line of thinking runs something like this:
Until we have a firm viewpoint on when tapering will commence chances of a significant uptrend are impaired. Renewed jockeying over the debt ceiling over the coming weeks is also likely to weigh against a swift upward resurgence. At the same time there are no immediate warning signs of a crash.
If we examine the NASDAQ index in 2021. On the 16th Feb, 2021 we were hovering around 13,900, and 8 months on at present levels we are only 6.5% ahead. I think it is hard to argue on these numbers that the index is massively overvalued. I am not expecting a speedy ascent but I think a rapid decline seems equally unlikely at this point.
Over the past few months I have taken some profits and reinvested during dips re-entering tech stocks such as $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), $CRWD (Crowdstrike Holdings) at discounted rates. At the same time I have added positions in $UNH (UnitedHealth) and $HCA (HCA Holdings Inc) to Merck on the healthcare side, alongside increased positions in major US banks.
Our portfolio is presently 30.43% in profit for the year with 12% cash on the sideline as added insurance. Active management of positions is key at the moment and I will be maintaining a steady eye on the markets as we run to the end of 2021.
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